ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Reveals Cautious Optimism for Q3 2025
Frankfurt, Germany – July 25, 2025 – The European Central Bank (ECB) today released the results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2025, offering valuable insights into the expectations of economic experts regarding the eurozone’s economic trajectory. The survey, a cornerstone for understanding prevailing economic sentiment, indicates a period of continued, albeit cautious, optimism, with a focus on moderating inflation and steady, albeit subdued, growth.
The survey, conducted among a panel of independent economic forecasters, paints a picture of an economy that has largely navigated past challenges and is now settling into a more stable, albeit not robust, phase. A key takeaway is the continued expectation of declining inflation throughout the third quarter of 2025. Forecasters anticipate inflation rates to move closer to the ECB’s medium-term target, suggesting that the monetary policy measures implemented over the past periods are having their intended effect. While headline inflation is expected to ease, the survey also highlights the ongoing importance of monitoring underlying price pressures, particularly in the services sector.
In terms of economic growth, the outlook for the third quarter of 2025 remains broadly positive, but with a tempered pace. Forecasters project a modest expansion in real GDP, reflecting a continued recovery but without the strong momentum seen in some earlier periods. Several factors are contributing to this steady, yet moderate, growth narrative. On the positive side, consumer spending is expected to remain a supportive driver, bolstered by a gradually improving labor market and the anticipated easing of inflationary pressures. Business investment, while showing signs of life, is still being influenced by a complex global economic environment and the ongoing adaptation to structural changes.
The labor market is projected to continue its steady improvement. Unemployment rates are expected to decline further, though the pace of job creation is anticipated to be more gradual than in previous recovery phases. Wage growth is also forecast to remain a key area of observation, with forecasters looking for a balance between supporting household incomes and preventing the entrenchment of inflationary pressures.
Looking ahead, the survey also provides insights into potential risks and uncertainties that could shape the economic landscape in the latter half of 2025. While the immediate outlook appears stable, forecasters acknowledge the presence of global headwinds. These include geopolitical developments, ongoing supply chain adjustments, and the potential for shifts in global economic growth patterns. Domestic factors such as the pace of fiscal consolidation in member states and the successful implementation of structural reforms are also identified as crucial elements influencing the medium-term economic outlook.
Overall, the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2025 suggests a eurozone economy in a phase of consolidation and continued, albeit gradual, recovery. The prevalent sentiment among forecasters is one of cautious optimism, characterized by a belief in the ongoing effectiveness of monetary policy in bringing inflation under control and a projection of steady, sustainable, albeit not spectacular, economic growth. As always, the ECB will continue to closely monitor these evolving economic conditions and adjust its policies accordingly to ensure price stability and support the well-being of the eurozone economy.
Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2025
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