Banco de España: Macroeconomic projections
The Banco de España has published its latest macroeconomic projections, which outline the expected path of the Spanish economy over the coming years. The projections are based on a number of assumptions, including that there will be no major changes in the global economy or in Spain’s fiscal and monetary policies.
According to the Banco de España, the Spanish economy is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2023, 2.5% in 2024, and 2.7% in 2025. This growth will be driven by a number of factors, including the recovery of domestic demand, the continued growth of exports, and the implementation of the government’s economic recovery plan.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall from 13.0% in 2022 to 11.5% in 2023, 10.1% in 2024, and 9.0% in 2025. This decline in unemployment will be due to the growth of the economy and the creation of new jobs.
Inflation is expected to remain elevated in the near term, but it is projected to fall back to the ECB’s target of 2% by the end of 2025. This decline in inflation will be due to the easing of supply chain disruptions and the moderation of energy prices.
The Banco de España’s projections are broadly in line with those of other economic forecasters. However, there are some risks to the outlook, including the possibility of a global economic slowdown, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the potential for a resurgence of COVID-19.
Despite these risks, the Banco de España is optimistic about the long-term prospects for the Spanish economy. The bank believes that the economy has the potential to grow at a rate of 2.5% per year over the next decade, which would lead to a significant increase in living standards.
The Banco de España’s projections are an important input into the government’s economic planning process. The government will use the projections to make decisions about fiscal and monetary policy, as well as to develop policies to promote economic growth and job creation.
Banco de España: Macroeconomic projections
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