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Breakthrough Study Predicts Amazon Rainforest Dieback Within the 21st Century Under High Emissions Scenarios
Tokyo, Japan – August 20, 2025 – A groundbreaking study released today by The University of Tokyo has projected that the Amazon rainforest could begin to experience widespread dieback within the 21st century, particularly if greenhouse gas emissions continue on a high trajectory. The research, published on August 20, 2025, at 09:00 JST, utilizes cutting-edge climate modeling to paint a concerning, yet crucial, picture of the future of this vital global ecosystem.
The findings, detailed in the publication titled “地球温暖化が進むとアマゾン熱帯雨林の枯死が21世紀中に始まることを最先端モデルが高排出シナリオで予測” (Advanced Models Predict the Onset of Amazon Rainforest Dieback Within the 21st Century Under High Emissions Scenarios), represent a significant advancement in our understanding of the complex interplay between global warming and the Amazon’s delicate balance.
For decades, scientists have recognized the Amazon rainforest as a critical carbon sink, absorbing vast amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide and playing an indispensable role in regulating global climate patterns. However, this new research offers a stark warning about its potential tipping point. The advanced models employed by the University of Tokyo team simulate various future climate scenarios, with a particular focus on those characterized by high rates of greenhouse gas emissions.
The study indicates that the cumulative effects of rising global temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as prolonged droughts, could push the Amazon beyond its resilience threshold. Under these high-emission scenarios, the models suggest that the forest’s ability to regenerate and sustain itself could be severely compromised, leading to a gradual but significant shift from a vibrant rainforest to a more savanna-like ecosystem.
The implications of such a transformation are far-reaching. A widespread dieback of the Amazon would not only result in a catastrophic loss of biodiversity, as countless species unique to this region would face extinction, but it would also have profound consequences for global climate. The release of the vast amounts of carbon stored within the Amazon’s biomass would further exacerbate global warming, potentially creating a dangerous feedback loop. Furthermore, disruptions to regional and global weather patterns could impact agriculture and water availability across continents.
While the study’s predictions are sobering, they underscore the urgent need for concerted global action to mitigate climate change. The researchers emphasize that these projections are particularly linked to high-emission pathways, suggesting that decisive and immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could alter the trajectory and potentially avert the most severe outcomes for the Amazon.
The University of Tokyo’s commitment to conducting such vital scientific research is commendable. This study provides policymakers, environmental organizations, and the public with critical data to inform discussions and drive actions aimed at protecting this invaluable natural resource for future generations. It serves as a potent reminder of the interconnectedness of our planet and the profound impact of human activities on its most cherished ecosystems.
地球温暖化が進むとアマゾン熱帯雨林の枯死が21世紀中に始まることを最先端モデルが高排出シナリオで予測
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東京大学 published ‘地球温暖化が進むとアマゾン熱帯雨林の枯死が21世紀中に始まることを最先端モデルが高排出シナリオで予測’ at 2025-08-20 09:00. Please write a detailed article about this news in a polite tone with relevant information. Please reply in English with the article only.