Future climate scenarios
The UK Climate Projections (UKCP) has published new climate scenarios for the UK, providing the most up-to-date projections of how the climate may change in the future.
The scenarios are based on the latest climate science and take into account a range of possible future greenhouse gas emissions. They show that the UK is likely to experience a warmer and wetter climate in the future, with more extreme weather events.
The new scenarios are an update to the previous UKCP scenarios, which were published in 2018. They include a number of new features, such as:
- Projections for a wider range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios
- More detailed projections of changes in extreme weather events
- Projections for a longer time period, up to 2100
The scenarios are designed to help businesses, governments and other organisations plan for the future. They can be used to assess the risks and opportunities posed by climate change, and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Key findings
The key findings of the new UKCP scenarios are as follows:
- The UK is likely to experience a warmer and wetter climate in the future.
- The average temperature in the UK is projected to increase by between 1.5°C and 5.4°C by the end of the century, depending on the greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
- The UK is projected to experience more extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, floods and storms.
- The frequency and intensity of heatwaves is projected to increase, with the average number of heatwave days per year increasing from 2.5 to 10.5 by the end of the century.
- The UK is projected to experience more droughts, with the average number of droughts per year increasing from 0.3 to 1.4 by the end of the century.
- The UK is projected to experience more floods, with the average number of flood events per year increasing from 1.5 to 2.6 by the end of the century.
- The UK is projected to experience more storms, with the average number of storms per year increasing from 1.3 to 2.2 by the end of the century.
Implications
The findings of the new UKCP scenarios have a number of implications for the UK. These include:
- The need to adapt to a warmer and wetter climate, including building more resilient infrastructure and developing new ways to manage water resources.
- The need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, in order to reduce the risks of climate change.
- The need to invest in research and development, in order to improve our understanding of climate change and its impacts.
The UK government is committed to taking action on climate change. The Climate Change Act 2008 sets a legally binding target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. The government is also investing in a range of adaptation measures, such as flood defences and heatwave planning.
Future climate scenarios
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