Government of Spain: Macroeconomic Scenario 2025-2030
This article is about the macroeconomic scenario for Spain in 2025-2030, as presented by the Spanish government in the “Economic Forecast for 2025-2030” report.
Key Points
- Spain’s economy is expected to grow by an average of 2.5% per year over the next five years, reaching a GDP of €1.5 trillion by 2030.
- The main drivers of growth will be exports, investment, and tourism.
- Inflation is expected to remain moderate, averaging 2% per year.
- Unemployment is expected to decline to 12%, its lowest level in a decade.
- The government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline to 90%, below the EU average.
Details
Economic Growth
Spain’s economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2025, 2.7% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027, 2.5% in 2028, and 2.4% in 2029. This growth will be driven by strong exports, investment, and tourism.
Exports
Spain’s exports are expected to grow by an average of 4% per year over the next five years. This growth will be driven by demand from the EU, as well as from emerging markets such as China and India.
Investment
Investment is expected to grow by an average of 3% per year over the next five years. This growth will be driven by government spending on infrastructure, as well as by private sector investment in new technologies.
Tourism
Tourism is expected to grow by an average of 2% per year over the next five years. This growth will be driven by the continued strength of the eurozone economy, as well as by the increasing popularity of Spain as a tourist destination.
Inflation
Inflation is expected to remain moderate, averaging 2% per year over the next five years. This is due to the fact that the government is committed to keeping inflation under control, and because there is no significant upside pressure on wages or prices.
Unemployment
Unemployment is expected to decline to 12% by 2030, its lowest level in a decade. This decline will be driven by job creation in the export, investment, and tourism sectors.
Government Debt
The government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline to 90% by 2030, below the EU average. This decline will be driven by government spending cuts and tax increases.
Conclusion
The Spanish economy is expected to perform well over the next five years. The main drivers of growth will be exports, investment, and tourism. Inflation is expected to remain moderate, unemployment is expected to decline, and the government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline.
Gobierno de España: Macroeconomic Scenario
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