WTO Goods Barometer Shows Moderate Trade Growth as Policy Uncertainty Looms
Geneva, 9 December 2024 – The World Trade Organization (WTO) today released its latest Goods Barometer, which suggests that global trade growth will remain moderate in the coming months. The barometer’s index reading of 102.8 for October 2024 indicates that trade is slightly above its long-term trend.
However, the barometer also highlights several areas of concern, including rising policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
The WTO’s Goods Barometer is a composite index of seven indicators that track the performance of global trade. These indicators include export orders, container throughput, air freight, automobile production, agricultural raw material prices, and electronic component sales.
According to the barometer, the strongest indicator in October 2024 was export orders, which rose by 1.3%. This increase suggests that global demand for goods remains relatively strong. However, other indicators, such as container throughput and air freight, showed signs of weakness. Container throughput declined by 0.8% in October, and air freight fell by 1.5%. These declines suggest that the global trade outlook is becoming more uncertain.
The WTO’s Goods Barometer also highlights several other areas of concern, including rising policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Policy uncertainty has been on the rise in recent months, as governments around the world grapple with the challenges of inflation, energy security, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Geopolitical tensions have also escalated in recent months, particularly between the United States and China. These factors are creating a more volatile and uncertain environment for global trade.
The WTO’s Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, said that the latest Goods Barometer results suggest that global trade is facing a number of challenges. “The rise in policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions is creating a more volatile and uncertain environment for trade,” she said. “It is important that governments work together to reduce uncertainty and promote a more stable and predictable trading environment.”
The WTO’s Goods Barometer is published on a monthly basis. The next edition of the barometer will be released on 13 January 2025.
Goods barometer shows moderate trade growth as policy uncertainty looms
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