A Novel Method to Shed Light on Heat Waves
November 25, 2024
NSF-funded research team uses satellite measurements to improve how scientists can predict extreme heat events
As the planet warms, heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense. These extreme heat events can have devastating consequences, causing heat-related deaths, power outages, and wildfires.
A new study led by researchers at the University of California, Irvine has developed a novel method to improve how scientists can predict heat waves using satellite measurements. The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, could help communities better prepare for these dangerous events.
“Heat waves are a major threat to human health and safety, especially for vulnerable populations,” said Xiaomao Lin, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at UCI and lead author of the study. “Our new method provides a more accurate way to predict heat waves, which can help communities take steps to mitigate their impacts.”
The new method uses measurements from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) to estimate the surface temperature of the land. GOES is a series of satellites that orbit the Earth and provide near-real-time data on weather and climate conditions.
The researchers found that the GOES measurements can be used to predict heat waves with high accuracy. They tested their method on a data set of heat waves that occurred in the United States from 2003 to 2017. The method was able to predict the onset of a heat wave with an average lead time of 3 days.
“This is a significant improvement over the current state-of-the-art methods, which can only predict heat waves with a lead time of about 1 day,” said Lin. “Our new method can give communities more time to prepare for heat waves, which could save lives and property.”
The researchers say that their new method could be used to develop a real-time heat wave prediction system. Such a system could provide early warnings of heat waves, allowing communities to take steps to protect themselves, such as opening cooling centers and issuing heat advisories.
“Heat waves are a serious threat, but they don’t have to be deadly,” said Lin. “With better predictions, we can help communities take the steps they need to stay safe.”
The research was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). NSF is an independent federal agency that supports fundamental research and education in all fields of science and engineering.
A novel method to shed light on heat waves
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