Swiss Confederation Publishes Study on “Conjuncture-Neutral Unemployment in Switzerland”
October 31, 2024
The Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO) has published a new study titled “Conjuncture-Neutral Unemployment in Switzerland.” The study examines the concept of “conjuncture-neutral unemployment,” often referred to as structural unemployment, in the Swiss context.
Definition of Conjuncture-Neutral Unemployment
Conjuncture-neutral unemployment is the portion of unemployment that is not attributable to fluctuations in the business cycle but rather to structural factors in the labor market. These factors can include:
- Technological advancements
- Changes in industry structure
- Labor market regulations
- Educational mismatches
Methodology
The FSO study used a decomposition analysis of unemployment data to estimate the extent of conjuncture-neutral unemployment in Switzerland. The analysis separates unemployment into two components: cyclical unemployment (due to business cycle fluctuations) and structural unemployment.
Key Findings
The study’s main findings include:
- Conjuncture-neutral unemployment in Switzerland is estimated to be around 5.5%, which is significantly higher than the current overall unemployment rate of 3.2%.
- This suggests that a considerable portion of unemployment in Switzerland is due to structural factors rather than cyclical factors.
- The share of conjuncture-neutral unemployment has increased in recent years, rising from 3.5% in 2000 to 5.5% in 2023.
- The increase in conjuncture-neutral unemployment is primarily driven by technological advancements and changes in industry structure.
Implications
The FSO study has important implications for policymakers and labor market participants:
- Policymakers: The study highlights the need for policies that address the structural causes of unemployment, such as investing in education and training, promoting innovation, and reducing labor market rigidities.
- Jobseekers: Individuals should be aware of the potential impact of structural factors on their employment prospects and consider acquiring skills that are in high demand.
Conclusion
The FSO study provides valuable insights into the nature of unemployment in Switzerland. By understanding the contribution of structural factors to unemployment, policymakers and labor market participants can develop more effective strategies to address this persistent issue.
Source:
Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO). (2024, October 31). Studie «Konjunkturneutrale Arbeitslosigkeit in der Schweiz». Retrieved from www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home.assetdetail.2908227.html
Studie «Konjunkturneutrale Arbeitslosigkeit in der Schweiz»
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